UA 2831 · LAX → SFO

left the gate 11:48 AM PT · taxiing (scheduled 11:33 AM PT → 1:05 PM PT)

Your aircraft is N33262 (B738), coming in as UA 2315 from FAT: landed 9:05 AM PT.

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2831 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?