Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2865 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow

UA 2865 · DEN → ORD

departs 11:15 AM MT · arrives 2:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2865 · DEN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?