Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 304 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 304 · MCO → CLE

departs 12:21 PM ET · arrives 2:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

CLE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,933 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 304 · MCO → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?