Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3912 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11 Today

UA 3912 · IAH → ORD

departs 4:02 PM CT · arrives 6:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3912 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?