Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 521 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow

UA 521 · ATL → IAH

departs 3:53 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 521 · ATL → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?