Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 622 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 622 · ORD → AUS

departs 12:56 PM CT · arrives 3:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at AUS that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 622 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?