Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 786 · ORD → RDU

departs 12:52 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

RDU (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 786 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?