Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8134 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11 Today

UA 8134 · IAH → LGA

departs 4:24 PM CT · arrives 9:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8134 · IAH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?