Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8197 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 8197 · DEN → SJC

departs 1:21 PM MT · arrives 3:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8197 · DEN → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?