Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8205 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 8205 · SFO → EWR

departs 10:04 AM PT · arrives 6:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8205 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?