Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1004 · BWI → FLL
departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 5:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 11/10 24%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 34%
Sat 11/14 30%
Sun 11/15 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt
Ceiling 8,333 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.