Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1155
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1155 · PHX → SAN
departs 11:07 AM MT · arrives 11:30 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 11/9 19%
Tue 11/10 18%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 21%
Fri 11/13 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.