Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1286 · HNL → OGG
departs 8:02 AM HT · arrives 8:58 AM HT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 11/9 4%
Tue 11/10 2%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 4%
Fri 11/13 4%
Sat 11/14 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
3%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
3%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
↓
8am departures from HNL are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OGG (destination)
Gusts 40 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.