Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 1498 · SMF → DAL
departs 1:26 PM PT · arrives 6:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 11/11
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.