Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1543 · SEA → SMF
departs 11:32 AM PT · arrives 1:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 45%
Sun 11/15 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.