Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1638 · MDW → DTW
departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 3:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 11/10 13%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 24%
Fri 11/13 22%
Sun 11/15 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.