Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 1641 · AUA → MCO
departs 3:56 PM AST · arrives 6:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave AUA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
AUA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.