Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1644 · MCO → PIT
departs 2:17 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10 13%
Wed 11/11
Sat 11/14 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.