Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 1715 · DEN → MSY
departs 10:46 AM MT · arrives 2:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 11/10 8%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 19%
Sun 11/15 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.