Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 174 · LAS → ONT
departs 1:23 PM PT · arrives 2:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 11/10 18%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 11%
Fri 11/13 13%
Sat 11/14 8%
Sun 11/15 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.