WN 2130 · AUS → SMF

took off 7:19 PM CT · landed 8:36 PM PT (scheduled 5:39 PM CT → 7:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SMF (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2130 · AUS → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?