Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2257
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 2257 · HOU → TPA
departs 2:36 PM CT · arrives 5:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 40%
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.24 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.