Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 234 · PHX → MDW
departs 1:02 PM MT · arrives 5:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10 25%
Wed 11/11
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.