Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 2470 · MSY → MCO
departs 12:56 PM CT · arrives 3:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10 9%
Wed 11/11
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.