Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 2786 · MCO → IND
departs 2:06 PM ET · arrives 4:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 34%
Fri 11/13 33%
Sat 11/14 38%
Sun 11/15 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.