Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 2817 · MCO → MSY
departs 2:21 PM ET · arrives 3:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 11/10 13%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13 33%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.