Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 2846 · DAL → RDU
departs 1:11 PM CT · arrives 5:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 11/10 25%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 34%
Sun 11/15 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.