Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2989
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 2989 · SFO → STL
departs 11:12 AM PT · arrives 4:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 11/10 23%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 45%
Fri 11/13 51%
Sun 11/15 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 53% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.