Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 3243 · AUS → ATL
departs 12:53 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13 30%
Sun 11/15 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.