Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3258
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 3258 · OGG → LAS
departs 9:21 PM HT · arrives 4:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 13%
Fri 11/13 12%
Sat 11/14 10%
Sun 11/15 15%
Mon 11/16 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
9pm departures from OGG are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 42 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.