Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 3262 · OGG → SAN
departs 11:16 PM HT · arrives 6:30 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 16%
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 21%
Mon 11/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 42 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.