Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 3414 · BUR → SFO
departs 12:16 PM PT · arrives 1:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13 59%
Sun 11/15 44%
Mon 11/16 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 57% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.