Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 3501 · TPA → RDU
departs 3:59 PM ET · arrives 5:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 34%
Fri 11/13 34%
Sun 11/15 34%
Mon 11/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.