Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 3585 · SNA → DEN
departs 10:41 AM PT · arrives 1:58 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 11/10 9%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 34%
Sun 11/15 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.