Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 38
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 38 · AUS → RDU
departs 2:23 PM CT · arrives 6:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 11/11
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.