Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

WN 4004 · BNA → MDW

departs 6:22 PM CT · arrives 8:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MDW (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4004 · BNA → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?