Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 402 · PLS → MCO
departs 2:36 PM EST · arrives 4:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 11/10 17%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 27%
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave PLS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at PLS that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
PLS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PLS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.27 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.