Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 431 · HOU → SAT
departs 2:51 PM CT · arrives 3:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13 31%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SAT that day
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.