Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 4454 · AUS → MCO
departs 12:21 PM CT · arrives 3:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 34%
Sun 11/15 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.