Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 447
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 447 · SAN → SBA
departs 12:31 PM PT · arrives 1:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 11/11
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.