Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4600
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
WN 4600 · HOU → MSY
departs 2:41 PM CT · arrives 4:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 93%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 38%
Sat 11/14 30%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.29 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.