Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 4945 · MDW → LGA
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 5:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 11/10 33%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 55%
Fri 11/13 57%
Sat 11/14 32%
Sun 11/15 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 11,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.