Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 503
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 503 · DEN → OAK
departs 1:07 PM MT · arrives 2:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10 16%
Wed 11/11
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.