WN 536 · DEN → OAK

departs 3:31 PM MT · arrives 5:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 536 · DEN → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?