Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 783 · PUJ → MCO
departs 2:36 PM AST · arrives 4:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 31%
Sat 11/14 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PUJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PUJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.