Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 801 · LGB → MDW
departs 11:31 AM PT · arrives 5:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10 14%
Wed 11/11
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MDW that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
11am departures from LGB are usually not late
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.