Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Yesterday
WN 9003 · OGG → KOA
departs 1:32 PM HT · arrives 2:27 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
OGG is busy at that time
↑
1pm departures from OGG are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
OGG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
KOA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.