Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
WN 986 · MSY → LGA
departs 12:56 PM CT · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 56%
Fri 11/13 62%
Sun 11/15 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.