9E 4653 · LGA → STL

departs 1:55 PM ET · arrives 3:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.71 in

STL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4653 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?