9E 4720 · BTV → JFK

departs 2:18 PM ET · arrives 3:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BTV that day

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.21 in

JFK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4720 · BTV → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?